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Week of Jul 21

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Calendar

Economic events and earnings — week of July 21, 2026.

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01 / 05 — Weekly Setup

Jobs Week.
Software Cooling?
Semis Pulling Back.

Week of August 31, 2026 · SWP Market Thesis

Primary theme: The U.S. labor market dominates this week. JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and the August Jobs Report Friday. Economists expect 55K payrolls, 4.2% unemployment. This data drives Fed rate cut expectations for the rest of the year.

Software cooling or continuing? NOW, CRM, SNOWFLAKE, and PANW are names that may have hit areas of consolidation or peak after the software rally. PANW reports this week — its reaction will tell us a lot about whether cybersecurity names have more room or need a rest.

Semis and hardware pulling back: QQQ is pulling back. SMH is losing ground. Watching if NVDA, AVGO, AMD, ARM, MRVL, INTC can hold key levels or if the pullback deepens. AVGO reports Wednesday — key read for the entire semi space.

DELL reports Tuesday: AI server demand and infrastructure trend read. INTC trades in the same direction as DELL after earnings 88% of the time. Watch both.

Tesla Cybercab Thursday: Invite-only robotaxi launch event in Austin. No steering wheel, no pedals. This is a narrative catalyst that could move TSLA significantly.

Crypto still on watch: BTC holding $77K area. COIN, HOOD, MSTR, XYZ watching for continuation if crypto holds.

02 / 05 — Stocks on Watch

Names We're Watching

Semis · Software · Crypto · AI Infrastructure · Earnings plays

AVGO Broadcom — Reports Wed AMC. AI infrastructure + VMware + capex guidance. Key semi read.
PANW Palo Alto — Reports Tue AMC. Cybersecurity + AI security. Watching for software sector direction.
DELL — Reports Tue AMC. AI server demand + infrastructure. INTC moves same direction 88% of the time.
SNOW Snowflake — Reports Wed AMC. Cloud data + AI workloads. High IV name.
TSLA — Cybercab launch event Thursday. Narrative catalyst — could move big.
NVDA + SMH — Semis pulling back. Watching for support or acceleration lower.
COIN + HOOD + MSTR — Crypto plays. BTC holding $77K — watching for continuation.
MSFT + GOOGL + AMZN + AAPL — Mag Seven watching for upside continuation.

03 / 05 — Key Levels

Levels That Matter

Support and resistance — updated weekly · Week of Aug 31

SPY — Resistance $771–$772 · Holding $763 is ideal · Gap fill $758 · Another gap $748. Lose $763 → lower $760s in play.
QQQ — Currently $716 · Resistance $716–$718 · Ceiling $721–$723 · Support $707–$708 · Lose that → $705 → $701–$702 → $698 → $692 → $688.
NVDA — Currently $217 · Support $207–$208 (lose $212–$214 first) · Resistance $221–$222.
AVGO — Support $351–$352 · Line in sand $358–$360 · Resistance $370–$380 · Lose $351 → $331.
SMH — Resistance $563–$567 · Ceiling $572 · Support $544–$547 · Demand $535–$537 · Lose $529 → $518 → $500.
DRAM — Resistance $56–$58 · Ceiling $62 · Support zone $48–$52 · Lose $53 → $48 → $43.

04 / 05 — Earnings This Week

Earnings Calendar

Week of August 31 — September 4, 2026

DELL — Tue Sep 1 (AMC) — AI server demand + infrastructure trends. ~10% move priced in. Watch INTC reaction.
PANW Palo Alto — Tue Sep 1 (AMC) — Cybersecurity + AI security. Software sector direction read.
AVGO Broadcom — Wed Sep 2 (AMC) — AI infrastructure + VMware + capex guidance. THE semi read of the week.
SNOW Snowflake — Wed Sep 2 (AMC) — Cloud data + AI workloads. High IV name.
ZS Zscaler — Thu Sep 3 (AMC) — Cybersecurity cloud. AI security theme continuation.
LULU Lululemon — Thu Sep 3 (AMC) — Consumer spending health read. Retail sector signal.

AMC = After Market Close · BMO = Before Market Open · AVGO and DELL are the two biggest reads for the semi and AI infrastructure space.

05 / 05 — Scenarios

Bull · Base · Bear

How we see the week playing out

Bull Case — Jobs report Friday beats expectations. AVGO and DELL crush earnings — AI infrastructure demand confirmed. PANW and SNOW beat — software finds new legs. SPY holds $763 and grinds back toward $772. QQQ holds $700 area. TSLA Cybercab event sparks a rally. Crypto BTC breaks above $80K. Risk-on rotation broadens.
Base Case — Jobs data in line. Earnings mixed — some beats, some in-line. SPY gap fill at $758 holds as support. QQQ tests $700–$702 area and bounces. Software cools while semis stabilize. We trade individual setups, manage risk, and wait for clear structure before adding size.
Bear Case — Jobs report disappoints — recession fears spike. AVGO or DELL miss — AI capex narrative questioned. Semis accelerate lower, SMH loses $535 demand. SPY fills gap at $748. QQQ loses $698 → $692 → $688. Software and semis sell off together. Crypto BTC loses $77K. We go to cash and wait for structure.

Structure Over Hype · Capital First · Updated every Sunday night.

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